Boat costs: is it just me, or...

[magictime]

...have the prices of mid-market second-hand boats been catching up to the prices of more up-market second-hand boats over the last year?

I swear that 12 months ago, if you saw a 57ft-ish narrowboat being marketed in the £40k-£50k bracket, it was most likely less than 10 years old, in/near London, or by a 'name' builder. This year I feel like I'm seeing the same sort of boats in the same bracket - OK, maybe more towards the top end - but I also feel like most of the average 15-25 year old boats are crowding in there with them.

I know it's no secret that prices are up - by 10% or 15%, according to a broker I spoke to last week - but I do get the impression this is happening in such a way that the 'London premium', and the saving you'd expect to make by looking at somewhat older boats, are fast eroding.

[Naughty Cal]

I think the resale cost of boats across the range has gone up significantly in the past 12 months.

We have been amazed at some of the prices they are achieving for boats at the brokerage at our marina. Just 12 months ago some of these would have been marketed for a good £10k or more less. They are now selling for inflated prices within days.

[NB Lola]

Does not take much to work out it's cheaper to buy in the north then move it and that then dampens the differentiation, general price hikes notwithstanding.

[MtB]

1 hour ago, Naughty Cal said:

I think the resale cost of boats across the range has gone up significantly in the past 12 months.

We have been amazed at some of the prices they are achieving for boats at the brokerage at our marina. Just 12 months ago some of these would have been marketed for a good £10k or more less. They are now selling for inflated prices within days.

If selling within days, the prices are not inflated.  QED. 

[cuthound]

It's because of market forces.

In the last few years several boat builders have stopped making boats for various reasons, whilst at the same time demand for good secondhand  boats has been rising, possibly because of Tim 'n Pru and their ilk. 

[JamesFrance]

Having been in France for 12 years the current price level for new and old boats has been a surprise to me.

In 1997 I bought a new 42ft Stoke on Trent Rudyard from them for £32,000 and had a top spec 70ft tug built by Steve Hudson in 1999 for £90,000 after selling the house.   Equivalent boats seem to be double those prices today and yet inflation has been low since then.   It must be demand from frustrated land dwellers.

[MtB]

20 years of inflation at 4% on average = prices doubled, roughly. 

[Midnight]

Boats are selling well this year. Some of the sh*te I've seen sold for big money has amazed me I reckon old Midnight is still worth more  than the original cost of the self-fit-out 14 years ago.

[JamesFrance]

The Bank of England says 2.7% average for the last 20 years, which makes £143,000 for the Hudson and there were much smaller boats at Crick asking well over that.

[Neil2]

7 hours ago, magictime said:

...have the prices of mid-market second-hand boats been catching up to the prices of more up-market second-hand boats over the last year?

I swear that 12 months ago, if you saw a 57ft-ish narrowboat being marketed in the £40k-£50k bracket, it was most likely less than 10 years old, in/near London, or by a 'name' builder. This year I feel like I'm seeing the same sort of boats in the same bracket - OK, maybe more towards the top end - but I also feel like most of the average 15-25 year old boats are crowding in there with them.

I know it's no secret that prices are up - by 10% or 15%, according to a broker I spoke to last week - but I do get the impression this is happening in such a way that the 'London premium', and the saving you'd expect to make by looking at somewhat older boats, are fast eroding.

Yep, it's a bad time to be a first time buyer entering the narrowboat world.  Brokers in particular are chancing their arm on anything in the 50-60' bracket and if anything sticks it's usually because there's a serious flaw.  The other significant change in the market in the last couple of years is winter trade.  It used to be pretty dead but one broker I was talking to recently remarked that sales carry on regardless of the season these days.  So you can't even go foot slogging in December hoping for a bargain.

It doesn't seem that long ago that £35k would have bought you a very tidy used boat needing no significant work, I wouldn't like to say where the batting starts these days.  

[magictime]

21 minutes ago, Neil2 said:

It doesn't seem that long ago that £35k would have bought you a very tidy used boat needing no significant work, I wouldn't like to say where the batting starts these days.  

Yes, that's very much my impression. I've seen a few nice boats being marketed at or just above the £40k mark, which thankfully is just about within our budget, so I'm hoping to find something of the sort you describe. But I can't believe some of the boats I'm seeing advertised as you get down towards £30k.

What I wouldn't like to say is whether this is an adjustment, a bubble, or a trend. On balance I think I'm happier buying soon in case price just keep climbing.

[b0atman]

it would be interesting to know the trend figures for first time purchasers as to leisure or live aboard since say 2000.

 

[Murflynn]

all the meedyar publicity about the joys of alternative housing floating on the cut doesn't help - the rate of increase in the price of boats will tend towards the rate of increase in house prices.

[Neil2]

On 8/30/2017 at 21:05, magictime said:

Yes, that's very much my impression. I've seen a few nice boats being marketed at or just above the £40k mark, which thankfully is just about within our budget, so I'm hoping to find something of the sort you describe. But I can't believe some of the boats I'm seeing advertised as you get down towards £30k.

What I wouldn't like to say is whether this is an adjustment, a bubble, or a trend. On balance I think I'm happier buying soon in case price just keep climbing.

I think we have a perfect storm at the moment where several factors are combining to cause this spike in prices. One broker I spoke to recently thought the TV exposure was the most important, another said it was house prices, another blamed the weak pound, another even thought the rise in terrorism was having a major effect.  It only needs one of these factors to be removed for prices to settle down and that's the worry for anyone buying at the top of the market.  

At the same time as secondhand prices are on the up, I don't think the demand, and hence prices, for/of new boats has kept pace.  One shell builder I spoke to recently said he had noticed a falling off in demand as used prices rose, and for the first time he had stopped building shells speculatively, ie he only builds to order these days.  So you may get better value for money buying new at the moment.

[AllanC]

3 hours ago, Neil2 said:

 At the same time as secondhand prices are on the up, I don't think the demand, and hence prices, for/of new boats has kept pace.  One shell builder I spoke to recently said he had noticed a falling off in demand as used prices rose, and for the first time he had stopped building shells speculatively, ie he only builds to order these days.  So you may get better value for money buying new at the moment.

I don't understand what you mean Neil. Surely as prices for used boats get higher, it would make a new shell more attractive, especially if the cost for new shells had not kept up with inflated prices.

Could you elaborate?

[Neil2]

7 hours ago, AllanC said:

I don't understand what you mean Neil. Surely as prices for used boats get higher, it would make a new shell more attractive, especially if the cost for new shells had not kept up with inflated prices.

Could you elaborate?

I'm just repeating what I was told.  The builder in question said that, hitherto, demand for new shells has been so buoyant he built them for stock, so to speak, but recently he has had trouble selling them.  This is just one builder of course and he may not be representative of the industry as a whole, but I don't find it so surprising.  I think the secondhand market is being boosted by people who want to get on the water asap - this concurs with what one broker told me, it's the "live today" approach, driven by all the uncertainties around at the moment.  

What is frustrating for anyone analysing the market these days is the demographic - eg if it was mostly young buyers you might say the house price thing is most significant, but all the brokers I've spoken to say there's no pattern, it's increasing across the board.

 

 

[magictime]

19 hours ago, AllanC said:

 Surely as prices for used boats get higher, it would make a new shell more attractive, especially if the cost for new shells had not kept up with inflated prices.

It's certainly odd if true. Maybe after a period of many new shells being built, there are a lot of 'nearly new' shells on the market and that's suppressing demand for new builds?

[AllanC]

Yes, if there was a surplus of unsold new shells it would certainly slow production down. I just didn't understand why used prices rising would have slowed new shell building down. Maybe I am not getting it.