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churchward

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churchward last won the day on May 12 2017

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About churchward

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  1. Here we go again

    As Churchill is quoted as saying K.B.O! Take care of yourself Dave hopefully see you at the boat sometime.
  2. Trump

    There were many even Blue Chip Companies who took "Pension Holidays" in the 1990s (Before Gordon) during harder economic times leading to a big shortfall for most Pension Schemes going forward. Gordon's initiatives did not help any either of course. To us "common people" it seems a poor logic that allows a company to pay dividends to shareholders in preference to paying money into a Pension scheme and also paying the top executives large bonuses and payoffs. A recent example of course is the Carillion debacle.
  3. Brexit 2017

    Whilst such a loss would not be the end of the world it would hurt. Selling almost a million cars less per year is significant and could mean job losses in Germany as demand on the production line slows and stock piles (if they keep producing at the same rate) grow. To dismiss the effect of a smaller UK market for German cars is on German car manufacturers is under selling the effect by a margin and over selling the robustness of the German business. A Deloitte report on the effect on the car industry of a Hard Brexit with no deal and WTO trading rules was in summary as follows: The total revenue from vehicles in the UK will fall by approximately €12.4bn (-18%), and profits by €900m. While producers from the UK and from outside the EU would benefit, the revenue of the EU without Germany would fall by €8.3bn and of German producers by €6.7bn. In the year of withdrawal, car sales will decline by approximately 550,000 units (-19%) in the UK. The German car exports would fall by 255,000 units (-32%). Based on the sales and revenue decline, approximately 18,000 jobs in the German car industry would be put at direct risk. Overall, the study finds that the impact of such a Brexit on the German car industry would be similar to that of the financial crisis, with car production falling to 2.28m units in 2019, down from 3.07m in 2016 and close to the 2.19m of 2009.
  4. Trump

    I agree. It seems Trump believes that the receiving country would have no choice. But many of these "Dreamers have been in the country for several years and many of them could be adults leading law-abiding fulfilling lives. Dream I believe is an acronym to stand for Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors and was originally a proposed act to allow under certain conditions the people who qualify to be fully naturalised as US citizens. As I understand it the DREAM act itself has never been passed but Obama introduced (by executive order?) The DACA Program Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals which more or less covered similar ground and effected the same people as DREAM. This I think is what Trump wants to undo The problem seems very small in comparison to others the US faces and like you I cannot see why you would arbitrarily get rid of this portion of the population.
  5. Trump

    Quite so. I read but can't find the reference at the minute that his business ventures have been quite poor in making money (some have but some haven't) so much so that if he had invested his inherited money (in saving schemes etc.) he would be richer now than he is.
  6. Trump

    I think he did too but at the moment I can't find a reference to it. Trump contradicts himself a lot of the time. He is supposed by his own words to be a supreme deal maker but failed in this instance. Obama did for sure get into a similar position on the budget vote although as I recall the any shutdown was short lived as they came to a compromise. Obama's administration had a Republican Congress to battle against too so you would expect it to be more of an uphill struggle for him than Trump.
  7. Trump

    Yes my mistake they did need a vote of 60 (or 60% of the house) to pass the budget. The Republican presence in the senate is presently 51 reduced by a couple in the last year out of 100 senators as there are two per state. Still, I was right about the budget has never been voted out in this way while one party has had a majority in Congress (both House of Reps and Senate) and the President. Also that some Republicans voted against which is no vote of confidence to Trump from his own party. In fact 5 Democrats voted for the bill but the Republicans (and the two independent senators) who voted against nulled them out. I don't like the idea of people not being paid when they have a government job but I also don't think that should hamstring someone into voting in a particular way. They need to vote with their conscience. The bill is not just about how many ham sandwiches they should have in the souvenir shop but how much is spent on immigration protection, wall building etc. The bill as voted for would have given money for things some people think is wrong. One of the main sticking points seem to be the so called "Dreamers" who as children came to the states undocumented, Trump wants to deport them to a country they have never known. The Democrats oppose this. There aught to be some kind of continuance rule that comes into force where money continues to flow to make sure what was budgeted/agreed before is still paid for. The UK example would be in NI where the local government has not sat for quite some time as Sinn Fein and the DUP won't sit in the same room together but the civil service more or less carries on (without any funding for new projects) and are paid despite the NI representatives not voting in a new budget. Mind you you could argue that this helps them to keep up their silly games and things are kept in limbo.
  8. Trump

    Not so good in the end he lost. President Trump is in a difficult place tonight with the Federal shutdown following the vote in the Senate that failed to get agreement on the budget. It does happen from time to time but I am not sure it has ever happened when the same party has the President and majorities in both government houses. I think this does show how out of step the President is from the Senate and house of Reps. Trump is blaming the Democrats but the truth is even of all of them voted against they would still loose if all the Republicans voted for. So the vote had to be lost due to enough Republicans (20 of them) voting against the Budget and the President.
  9. Brexit 2017

    Doesn't that just take the biscuit! Its all gone Kati-wompus.
  10. Looking out the aeroplane window...

    This was taken off the coast of Queensland, Australia. It was taken either flying to Cairns from Sydney or flying out to Alice Springs.
  11. Brexit 2017

    Currently even without leaving the EU it could not happen. The EU itself has no influence on if or when any member countries armed forces is deployed or how much is spent by member states on armaments etc. The EU may have a diplomatic influence but little else. Usually member countries follow their own interests in such matters. Any involvement by an outside organisation (rather than our own government) in a Lithuanian or similar conflict with the Russians would only likely be influenced by NATO (of which the UK will continue to be a member) but they can't force conscription either. Lithuania is a member of NATO too and the difference to the US being OK with Russia in Syria is that the NATO treaty effectively says an attack on one is an attack on all and member states are pledged to help. In Syria the Russian activities are seen to be helping the US cause and can turn a blind eye to all that they are doing there. I fervently hope no such conflict occurs or draws in other European states if it does.
  12. Brexit 2017

    That being so I am at a loss to know why you would think it is all going to get better when the UK has left the EU.
  13. Brexit 2017

    The labour position on Brexit i.e. are we leaving or not is clear. How they would go about it is another matter. Not like the government of course because they need to differentiate. I am not entirely sure I know what you mean about the Brexit bills but they are not all about what happens post the leave date. The withdrawal bill component that deals with the law repealing the ECA and making sure there are no legal gaps in UK legislation is for sure but also there is the powers that come into immediate effect once the bill has gone through Royal Assent. Little by little steps are being taken toward leaving. If as a dedicated Brexiter you do not have the faith in the UK Sovereign Parliamentary system I can't give it to you but personally I see no reason to think the process is being derailed. There are of course the people who despite everything that has happened want to remain in the EU and are doing all they can as is their right to change the final outcome. As I see it there will have to be a huge groundswell of public opinion for remaining to make that begin to happen and there is no evidence for that presently. The media do confuse the matter by grasping at a different story line at different times otherwise they have nothing new to say and keep the Brexit story alive and of course are fed by one pressure group or another. What we all need to do is look at the actual events that are unfolding that make a difference. Personally if we do indeed have to leave (and I think we are really beyond that question now) it should be a "soft", "squidgy", "gloopy" or "floculent" one rather than a full on hard Brexit.
  14. Brexit 2017

    I have no idea what Boris is up to or wish to waste time trying to 2nd guess it. We are not being asked to vote again as yet and it seems unlikely. I do think there should be a final vote in Parliament to agree the final deal. I don't think there should be a new referendum but if we did I think the only one with any real value would be a stay in the EU or accept the leaving deal when known. The most recent surveys on the subject offer no particular change in voting patterns. There is some evidence that people have changed their minds but fairly equally on both sides so rather cancelling each other out. There is also no real change in the political party policies so both Conservatives and Labour agree that the referendum is to be upheld and implemented. The Norway style deal is most often portrayed as the worst possible deal and worst of all worlds option. However, even though I doubt it would suit the UK's position it certainly works well for Norway and both the Norwegian people and their politicians are on the whole happy with the current deal they have. The deal is voluntary in that they can change their minds when they want and stop payments into the club so they have a choice if they no longer like what the EU is doing. A particular upside for them is that it makes it easy to keep an open border with Sweden without any special mucking about. The Brexit Bill is just moving along the normal Parliamentary process. It is just the UK sovereign process that leavers wish to defend and preserve. My view (not worth a lot as I have no influence on the outcome of course) is that the Bill will go through to being passed into law without much changing if at all. There may be a bit of Sabre rattling or even a bit of horse trading on small amendments but nothing significant. It is worth considering that every Brexit related vote and bill is not just a show but a real step that entwines the fact of leaving within the law. It can like any law be changed but each step makes it less likely.
  15. Brexit 2017

    Mean while the Brexit bill was voted through tonight in the commons. Some way to go and a bit foot stamping etc to happen in the House of Lords as they seem to be up for trying to amend it. We shall see if there is much of an appetite for that. An amendment proposed in the House of Commons to add in the ability to stay in the single market and customs Union was easily defeated 322 to 99, 48 Labour MPs ignored their whip and vote for the amendment rather than abstain. The bill passed 324 votes to 295. We shall soon see what the Lords make of it and if there is any mood in the Commons to listen to amendment advice. We shall see. On the whole normally speaking they would not hold it up much as it is part of the governments election manifesto.
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