WARNING

[Phil Speight]

Yo

I am going to make some of you cross by being extremely obtuse here but as someone within the industry I have to be professional - and that sometimes has to mean being mindful of my fellows interests. So - today I have heard disturbing news about a major boatbuilder . If you are having a boat built somewhere between the bottom and the middle of the market I suggest you make simple and polite enquiries about the progress of your boat and so on. Don`t panic - this may well be a complete red herring - just take steps to reassure yourself that all is well - as it most likely is. I`m sorry but I will not name names here in case the word is either deceptive or without foundation - because it could harm a perfectly sound business, that is simply taking action to ensure it `s own and it`s customers interests, to start rumours flying about. Just check the obvious things for peace of mind .

Phil

[Lol]

Yo

I am going to make some of you cross by being extremely obtuse here but as someone within the industry I have to be professional - and that sometimes has to mean being mindful of my fellows interests. So - today I have heard disturbing news about a major boatbuilder . If you are having a boat built somewhere between the bottom and the middle of the market I suggest you make simple and polite enquiries about the progress of your boat and so on. Don`t panic - this may well be a complete red herring - just take steps to reassure yourself that all is well - as it most likely is. I`m sorry but I will not name names here in case the word is either deceptive or without foundation - because it could harm a perfectly sound business, that is simply taking action to ensure it `s own and it`s customers interests, to start rumours flying about. Just check the obvious things for peace of mind .

Phil

 

I will avoid obtuse and come to the point, is this the rumor about Liverpool boats laying off a load of guys?

[blackrose]

I will avoid obtuse and come to the point, is this the rumor about Liverpool boats laying off a load of guys?

 

I thought that rumour was laid to rest a couple of weeks ago?

[WJM]

It could be interpreted either way - Positively it could be that they have spotted the problem early and dealt with it by downscaling their staff overheads. Perhaps volume manufacturing is heading east and the future lies in lower volume, higher margin. You need less staff for that.

[Phil Speight]

I will avoid obtuse and come to the point, is this the rumor about Liverpool boats laying off a load of guys?

Look folks - I CAN`T avoid obtuse , I`m in the business and I don`t disguise myself with a pen name - I maybe shouldn`t have said anything at all but I thought ( as a boater and a member of this forum ) I should at least suggest people check things out if they were parting with lots of money. They really should do that anyway - but I thought I`d reinforce the message. The boat builder in question has made redundancies and cancelled a supply arrangement to another builder/fitter. That doesn`t mean they are doing anything other than taking sensible measures to avoid there being any issue. This will quite probably become clear very soon and I will be more than pleased to then say the word was wrong. In the meantime , given I`m having private messages about this , I can`t say who it isn`t either . I`d run out of names fairly soon and finish up naming the builder by default.

Cheers

Phil

Edited February 28, 2008 by Phil Speight

[Gary Peacock]

I think you all know considering the state of the nation this will be an interesting few years!

 

Yes there are rumours doing the rounds in the trade about a number of builders experiencing a lack of orders and difficulties.

 

Now some of these rumours will be true that doesn't say the builders are dishonest or anything just victims of a failing economy.

 

In situations like this you have to work out how to proceed or if it is the time to call it a day, most companies accountants are good at this kind of thing.

 

If we hadn't down scaled three years ago from the ability to build up to twenty boats a year to five or six I very much doubt we would still be in business today. It wasn't even a decision based on great advice or business planning but just a case of flogging the company and us to death six or seven days a week with a massive increase in overheads but little increase in profits.

 

Based on that and the demise of Antony M and Heron who had both tried to massively increase the volume of boats they could build but failed we made the decision to return to a much smaller sustainable format building in a less "sausage machine" style.

 

The struggling builders will now have to take a long hard look and ask a few questions-

 

Is there still a general demand for new narrowboats?

 

Is there still a market for "Leisure" narrowboats?

 

Can they be competitive against the Eastern European imported narrowboats?

 

Do they try building a more expensive high spec boat to increase profits or build a cheaper low spec boat to reduce costs and build times?

 

Is it profitable or worthwhile selling hulls, sail aways etc. (This is always the last but not always the most financially resort when the order book is thin.)

 

Do they risk building a "spec" boat to sell when the orders run out, to keep the staff working? (But it all often dependent on a sale being made before the build is complete or it just becomes an albatross with the companies remaining capital tied up in it.)

 

Do they do a show to try and get orders and deposits in to keep things going. (The big danger here is resisting pricing your boat unrealistically low just to gain orders and deposits, you still have to build them without making a loss if inflation creeps up and this as been the failing of some big names in the past.)

 

Do they have the ability to explore other sources of business or is it "Ditch crawlers or bust"?

 

Anyway there are probably a lot more questions that need to be asked but I think that gives you an insight into the position quite a few builders are going to find themselves in without El Gordo can pull the proverbial "White Rabbit" out of the hat and save the day!

 

Anyway it's not that bad yet so altogether sing along-

 

There may be trouble ahead

But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance

Let's face the music and dance

 

Before the fiddlers have fled

Before they ask us to pay the bill and while we still have the chance

Let's face the music and dance

 

Soon we'll be without the moon, humming a different tune and then

There may be teardrops to shed

So while there's moonlight and music and love and romance

Let's face the music and dance

[RichardH]

I've noticed in the ad pages that the price of boats is being advertised as less than a couple of years ago - e.g. 58footer for 52k. Given that the steel price has risen steadily over the past few years is this sustainable for the builders. Everyone needs to make a profit and my concerns were some were cutting the cloth too thinly. What may happen is that the suppliers will reduce and those remaining may strengthen and survive.

 

Shame but in my opinion no different to what has happened in much of society e.g. local shops vs supermarkets, pubs vs sky tv and tinnies at home

[Brummage]

I think you all know considering the state of the nation this will be an interesting few years!

 

Yes there are rumours doing the rounds in the trade about a number of builders experiencing a lack of orders and difficulties.

 

Now some of these rumours will be true that doesn't say the builders are dishonest or anything just victims of a failing economy.

 

In situations like this you have to work out how to proceed or if it is the time to call it a day, most companies accountants are good at this kind of thing.

 

If we hadn't down scaled three years ago from the ability to build up to twenty boats a year to five or six I very much doubt we would still be in business today. It wasn't even a decision based on great advice or business planning but just a case of flogging the company and us to death six or seven days a week with a massive increase in overheads but little increase in profits.

 

Based on that and the demise of Antony M and Heron who had both tried to massively increase the volume of boats they could build but failed we made the decision to return to a much smaller sustainable format building in a less "sausage machine" style.

 

The struggling builders will now have to take a long hard look and ask a few questions-

 

Is there still a general demand for new narrowboats?

 

Is there still a market for "Leisure" narrowboats?

 

Can they be competitive against the Eastern European imported narrowboats?

 

Do they try building a more expensive high spec boat to increase profits or build a cheaper low spec boat to reduce costs and build times?

 

Is it profitable or worthwhile selling hulls, sail aways etc. (This is always the last but not always the most financially resort when the order book is thin.)

 

Do they risk building a "spec" boat to sell when the orders run out, to keep the staff working? (But it all often dependent on a sale being made before the build is complete or it just becomes an albatross with the companies remaining capital tied up in it.)

 

Do they do a show to try and get orders and deposits in to keep things going. (The big danger here is resisting pricing your boat unrealistically low just to gain orders and deposits, you still have to build them without making a loss if inflation creeps up and this as been the failing of some big names in the past.)

 

Do they have the ability to explore other sources of business or is it "Ditch crawlers or bust"?

 

Anyway there are probably a lot more questions that need to be asked but I think that gives you an insight into the position quite a few builders are going to find themselves in without El Gordo can pull the proverbial "White Rabbit" out of the hat and save the day!

 

Anyway it's not that bad yet so altogether sing along-

 

There may be trouble ahead

But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance

Let's face the music and dance

 

Before the fiddlers have fled

Before they ask us to pay the bill and while we still have the chance

Let's face the music and dance

 

Soon we'll be without the moon, humming a different tune and then

There may be teardrops to shed

So while there's moonlight and music and love and romance

Let's face the music and dance

 

With a singing voice like that Gary - your future is secure. Have you applied for this year's X-Factor?

[Chris Pink]

Interesting animal the human conciousness;

 

here on this forum we have on one side statements from smug possessors of moorings saying 'stop! the canal is full don't put any more boats into it (maybe they're worried the water will all slop out over the sides).

 

And the other side, concern about the boat-building businesses who would not have a job if the canals were really full. And statements form others that boats from Eastern Europe and even China are flooding in (excuse the pun).

 

Somehow, because of the money/class divisions these are almost the same people.

 

And all maintained in close proximity without any apparent awareness that we might be talking about the same issues.

 

and also interestingly, if BW thought the canals to be full surely they would stop issuing new licences, no?

[Gary Peacock]

I've noticed in the ad pages that the price of boats is being advertised as less than a couple of years ago - e.g. 58footer for 52k. Given that the steel price has risen steadily over the past few years is this sustainable for the builders. Everyone needs to make a profit and my concerns were some were cutting the cloth too thinly.

 

These are the too good to be true builders to be very wary of! It just does not add up, the overheads, material and component costs increase on a monthly basis no builder can absorb these increases. There is always a catch involved somewhere, at the least it might be just clever marketing to hook customers in at it's worst it might just be an attempt to delay the inevitable.

[NB Alnwick]

The fact is that during the last couple of decades many businesses and individuals have relied too heavily on credit. The wise men of the community always warned that this would lead to problems and it has - as Gary has said there are interesting times ahead.

 

Notwithstanding the financial problems facing the community at large, we need to do whatever we can to preserve and support our inland waterways and the associated businesses during the next few years to ensure their survival.

 

All hands to the pumps!

[tomsk]

Interesting animal the human conciousness;

 

here on this forum we have on one side statements from smug possessors of moorings saying 'stop! the canal is full don't put any more boats into it (maybe they're worried the water will all slop out over the sides).

 

And the other side, concern about the boat-building businesses who would not have a job if the canals were really full. And statements form others that boats from Eastern Europe and even China are flooding in (excuse the pun).

 

Somehow, because of the money/class divisions these are almost the same people.

 

And all maintained in close proximity without any apparent awareness that we might be talking about the same issues.

 

and also interestingly, if BW thought the canals to be full surely they would stop issuing new licences, no?

 

 

Are you confusing conciousness (concience?) with profitability?

[Ottocat]

It could be interpreted either way - Positively it could be that they have spotted the problem early and dealt with it by downscaling their staff overheads. Perhaps volume manufacturing is heading east and the future lies in lower volume, higher margin. You need less staff for that.

 

 

Or production could about to be moved to Gdansk

[Gary Peacock]

Or production could about to be moved to Gdansk

 

That area will get interesting too in the future.

 

One company doing it is a winner but if competition was to increase building there than a price war could soon spoil it for all.

 

The clever move in Gdansk or elsewhere in Europe would be to forget the cheap and cheerful ditch crawler and have a look at the higher end of the market.

 

Hull building and non full fits are going to become very inviable soon to base a business around both in the UK and further afield, the profit in that game is in volume production and that requires volume sales to support it.

Edited February 28, 2008 by Gary Peacock

[chris w]

That area will get interesting too in the future.

 

One company doing it is a winner but if competition was to increase building their than a price war could soon spoil it for all.

 

There are high barriers to entry though (financial and non-financial). One can't simply "move to Gdansk" and start up a week later.

 

Chris

Edited February 28, 2008 by chris w

[Yoda]

There are high barriers to entry though (financial and non-financial). One can't simply "move to Gdansk" and start up a week later.

 

Chris

 

There are also opportunities for startups using EU money instead of your own!!

[Gary Peacock]

There are high barriers to entry though (financial and non-financial). One can't simply "move to Gdansk" and start up a week later.

 

Chris

 

But there are a lot of native companies over the water touting for business to build for you and the price savings are not to be sniffed at.

 

At the end of the day if you are forced to call it quits in the UK and take up the "Clean hands" methods of boatbuilding then that's the way it will have to be, we built a good few boats using the services of non boat building engineering businesses the quality was as good if not better in some areas than the home grown boats and they were cheaper to build but the rest of the industry scoffed at the practise.

 

We were approached in 2004 by a Polish engineering company more than interested in building for us we didn't in the end go down that line but I most certainly wouldn't discount the possibility of looking at it again to maybe build a few more interesting things than the average ditch crawler.

 

If the UK market is in free fall why not look at other markets and types of boats?

[chris w]

Gary

 

I'm not disagreeing with your views. I concur with them in general. But, the longer you leave it, the higher those barriers become.

 

In the future, if all the major boat builders operate out of Poland (or wherever), the basic law of competitiveness raises its head again. What niche will you be able to exploit to be able to differentiate your boats from other boat manufacturers because competing on price won't be so clear cut?

 

Chris

Edited February 28, 2008 by chris w

[Yoda]

People who want a bespoke boat will always try to have it made close by rather than somewhere in Europe.

[NB Alnwick]

People who want a bespoke boat will always try to have it made close by rather than somewhere in Europe.

 

A very good point. There will always be a place for the specialised craftsman albeit probably in relatively small scale businesses.

[Lol]

I thought that rumour was laid to rest a couple of weeks ago?

 

Rumor has it as a bit more than just downsizing, over 80 laid off leaving only 8 staff to "tidy up" with the gaffer leaving to run his new marina?

[sueb]

Interesting animal the human conciousness;

 

here on this forum we have on one side statements from smug possessors of moorings saying 'stop! the canal is full don't put any more boats into it (maybe they're worried the water will all slop out over the sides).

 

And the other side, concern about the boat-building businesses who would not have a job if the canals were really full. And statements form others that boats from Eastern Europe and even China are flooding in (excuse the pun).

 

Somehow, because of the money/class divisions these are almost the same people.

 

And all maintained in close proximity without any apparent awareness that we might be talking about the same issues.

 

and also interestingly, if BW thought the canals to be full surely they would stop issuing new licences, no?

 

Apparently BW have to issue a licence but they can refuse the next one if you don't comply with the conditions of the first.

I didn't make the rules.

Sue

[Malarky]

We used to send customers to Liverpool boats if they found our prices a bit high, as they provide a cheep boat, most soon came back! Although some actualy got their boats built there, and were satisfied. It would be a shame to loose them. Cheers Liverpool Boats!

Maybee they've downsised to put the price up and go more for quality than quantity, as I suspect they should be able to conspire to build damn good boats after all that practice!

[Phil Speight]

We used to send customers to Liverpool boats if they found our prices a bit high, as they provide a cheep boat, most soon came back! Although some actualy got their boats built there, and were satisfied. It would be a shame to loose them. Cheers Liverpool Boats!

Maybee they've downsised to put the price up and go more for quality than quantity, as I suspect they should be able to conspire to build damn good boats after all that practice!

Absolutely! I started this thread and I certainly didn`t say a word about Liverpool boats laying 80 plus staff off! As it happens I have heard about their redundancies - but the figure was nowhere near 80 - and I could name you at least one other big supplier who has recently done the same. If you have a boat on order at Liverpol it`s simple. Go and suss the situation out for yourself.You won`t find the answer on the internet - just broad hints at best and rumours at worst.

General conversation within the bits of the industry I`m in regular contact with suggest a downturn is coming and coming this year - it`s no secret . We are countering this in our paint operation by expanding in other markets , other businesses could well choose to shrink a bit in order to weather the perceived storm. As I`ve often said in other contexts here the people at the top , the bespoke builders who have been around for a very long time,

will survive . It`s how our boat painting operation has managed to exist for so long. We charge a lot of money to do a thoroughly good job - and the boat builders I admired most twenty five years and more ago who did the same are still in healthy business now. In the crowded bottom to mid section of the market those builders who try to buy survival by cutting prices to attract custom will be the first to feel the pinch . Time and again we read questions here from people looking for the cheapest way of doing things , who is the best "economy" builder, isn`t this process or that expensive , who`ll do such and such for less etc etc - it`s all a part of the same problem. Cheap and canal boats should never appear in the same sentence - the two are not compatible.

Cheers

Phil

[carlt]

Cheap and canal boats should never appear in the same sentence - the two are not compatible.

Cheers

Phil

Can't agree with that Phil.

 

"Cheap and steel narrow boats" maybe, but the demise of the budget narrow boat market might leave room for an upsurge in the cruiser industry.

 

If you want a decent, 4 berth holiday boat, how about a plywood cruiser? With todays technology a 30 year lifespan is achievable (Merlin openly claimed 20 years for their steel boats).

 

Cheaper moorings and licence, all mod cons for a week or two away and a prettier boat shaped boat.

 

Anyone got any premises?

 

If you want bespoke I'll do you carvel for the price of a Clonecraft!

Edited February 29, 2008 by carlt